Republicans, meanwhile, are not eager to advertise that their Senate majority is wobbling like a shopping cart with a bad wheel. And we pundits, chastened by having been burned, are reluctant to get too far out over our skis.

See the latest prediction markets odds for which party will win the Senate in the upcoming 2026 Midterm elections.

Prediction markets tracking Senate control have swung sharply in recent weeks as traders reassess political risk amid escalating tensions in Iran.